The 2025 Grammys are perhaps the most competitive yet. With the controversy of winners in the last couple of years, two album of the year nominations being submitted by breakout best artist nominees, and a growing skepticism in the legitimacy of the institution, this is set to be a very historic and controversial award show no matter the outcomes.
The Album of the Year nominations include Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter, André 3000’s New Blue Sun, Jacob Collier’s Djesse Vol. 4, Sabrina Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet, Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poet Department, Chappell Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, Charli XCX’s Brat, and Billie Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft. As the biggest category of the evening, there’s the most debate over who will take home the trophy. Taylor Swift, a Grammys darling, won this award just last year for her 2022 Album Midnights. A lot of people anticipate her loss following this contenions victory which gained a lot of negative attention for the Recording Academy. Similarly, Beyoncé’s 2023 loss caused public outrage. As the most Grammy-Awarded artist in history, she has never won Album of the Year. Despite all the mainstream success and this album being named her magnum opus by critics and audiences alike, it lost to a significantly less well received album, Harry’s House. A lot of people are theorizing that the Grammy’s may give a strategic approach in giving her a corrective win this year, as Renaissance was much more widely praised than Cowboy Carter.
Jacob Collier, André 3000, and Charli XCX each have such specific, niche sounds and audiences that it’s unlikely any of them will take him the award. André 3000 is another Grammy darling, but his album was reviewed poorly by critics in comparison to his other works. If any of these three has a chance of winning it would be Charli XCX, with her explosive year and mainstream dominance with her record-breaking album Brat. Dance-pop makes up such a small percentage of the Recording Academy that it is unlikely that she’ll be able to win despite her unprecedented success. The only situation where she could win, is the pop split.
Pop makes up the largest part of the recording academy, but it also tends to be the most likely to get votes from music professionals representing other genres due to its popularity. Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter are in many ways very similar artists. Each nominated for the Best New Artist award, they’ve been trying to make it in the industry for a while until achieving unprecedented success just this year. Each of them winning would be impressive as it’s their first year up for awards, which may also work against them. Particularly Chappell, it may be seen as too early to give her the career-defining award. Though I would not be surprised if she won or is very close to doing so due to her underdog story. Sabrina Carpenter has been lobbying behind the scenes and with her retro style, she may be able to pull enough. The two artists have a similar sound and fan base, which will very possibly lead both of them to getting less votes and neither winning.
Finally, in my opinion the favorite for the evening, Billie Eilish. Even in Billie’s year off of music her single “What was I made for?” managed to win Song of the Year. It’s safe to say the Recording Academy is behind her. Her album received rave reviews from critics and fans alike. Though a pop album, its experimentalism and lyrical genius will gain votes from other genres as well. The album suffers from not having a #1 on the Billboard Hot 100, blocked by Taylor Swift. Billie Eilish has however won Album of the Year in the past in 2020, so it may be seen as too soon in her young career to win again. Only time will tell who comes out on top, but it’s likely to be a memorable award show with performances from the biggest artists in the world and millions of fans holding their breath.
